What Would an Average Player Shoot on the Ryder Cup Course at Bethpage Black?

The famous sign on the first tee says it all: “WARNING: The Black Course Is An Extremely Difficult Course Which We Recommend Only For Highly Skilled Golfers.” That description would certainly include the U.S. and European Ryder Cup team players who’ll compete in their biennial match-play slugfest there beginning September 26th. But it eliminates most of the golfing public.

New York’s Bethpage State Park has the Green, Blue, Yellow, and Red Courses for them. But what if an average player did tee it up from the tips on the Black Course—as it’s likely to be set up by the PGA of America for the Ryder Cup? What would they shoot? According to USGA statistics, the average male golfer with a GHIN handicap index plays to a 14.2. Everyday golfers of both genders shoot an average score of 94. They’re not likely to fare well on any extremely difficult course. But just how much trouble would Bethpage Black give them? And where?

The data experts at Shot Scope offer some answers. With the performance-tracking data they put together using average distance measurements that include all shots, good and bad, we can make educated guesses about how the course would play for average Joes. It wouldn’t be pretty.

The good news: the greens at Bethpage Black are generally pretty flat. Our 14-handicap Average Joe (we’ll call him Joe) wouldn’t have to contend with the kind of dramatic swales he’d encounter on courses like Augusta National. But that doesn’t mean he’d two-putt every hole or make every five-footer, either. The average player takes between 32–40 putts per round—but we need to recognize that he doesn’t hit every green in regulation. And Bethpage’s greens are likely to be lightning-quick for the Ryder Cup. On the plus side, the normally treacherous rough at Bethpage Black probably won’t be cut at U.S. Open height for the Ryder Cup. So Joe might have a chance of advancing a ball from it. Somewhat. The bad news: Bethpage Black is a hilly, walking-only course. Joe hasn’t walked 18 holes in 20 years.

Here’s a hole-by-hole analysis of Bethpage Black as an average player like Joe might fare on it, incorporating Shot Scope’s data.

Hole 1 | Par Four | 340 yards

The opening hole is going to be shifted to the right for this year’s Ryder Cup to accommodate grandstands, so it will play significantly shorter than usual—and could even give big-hitting Ryder Cuppers the chance to drive the green. But not Joe. Shot Scope data shows that everyday golfers hit their drives an average of 204 yards, which on this par four would leave Joe around 140 yards to the green. It plays downhill off the tee, though, so let’s call it a 130-yard approach shot. Joe’s tee ball finds its way into the trees, and after his punch-out, he pitches it on and two-putts for his opening bogey.

Hole Score: 5 | Total Score: +1

Hole 2 | Par Four | 389 yards

On the card, 389 yards doesn’t daunt Joe. But the 2nd at Bethpage Black is a dogleg-left par four that calls for an uphill second shot that will only allow him to see part of the flagstick. Joe’s been known to hit the occasional slice, and it shows up here. His 190-yard drive finds the rough and leaves him almost 200 yards, uphill, to a green protected by deep bunkers left and right. Joe finds one of those bunkers—not with his second shot, which he foozles and only advances 120 yards, but with his third. He does manage to blast his bunker shot onto the green, but he’s not used to these green speeds, and three putts later he’s in the hole for a 7.

Hole Score: 7 | Total Score: +4

Hole 3 | Par Three | 230 yards

Joe stands on the tee of this lengthy par three and knows he has no chance of reaching the green. Shot Scope data confirm this, showing that only 1 in 50 amateur players would hit it from this back tee. Joe’s dilemma: There’s a rough-choked valley short of the green from which successfully executing an uphill pitch would be something of a magician’s trick. He could try to lay up on the forward tees, but that would require a skillful, 100-yard shot that would leave him an 8-iron into a diagonal green fronted by three deep bunkers. He decides to blast driver. As expected, he ends up in the ankle-deep rough short and left, pitches the ball into one of the bunkers, and can’t get up and down from there. He’s 6-over after three.

Hole Score: 5 | Total Score: +6

Hole 4 | Par Five | 517 yards

After the “gentle handshake” of its three opening holes, Bethpage Black bares its fangs at the long, uphill, bunker-ridden 4th. It’s a daunting hole for Joe, who thins a weak fade that somehow manages to evade a fairway bunker and find the short grass. Now he has a decision. But not really. The 4th features a gargantuan cross bunker 200 yards from Joe’s ball. He can’t hope to carry it. He lays up with a hybrid. Next, he’s got an uphill, blind, 185-yard shot to a tabletop green fronted by a deep bunker. That bunker is not where his ball comes to rest—not yet. It finds the other bunker that’s just short of that bunker. From there, it’s 45 yards to the hole. Joe hits his bunker shot 20 yards, into the greenfront bunker. He blasts out from there and two-putts for another double.

Hole Score: 7 | Total Score: +8

Hole 5 | Par Four | 478 yards

Shot Scope has something to tell us about the tee shot at this long par four: Joe won’t like it. Their data shows that Joe’s best drive will come up 28 yards short of the fairway. The good news is that he can’t reach the yawning bunker that runs up the right side of the fairway, either. Joe’s drive leaves him 278 yards to the green from the deeper rough short of the fairway, and he can put no more than an 8-iron on his second shot. Now he’s got 175 yards straight uphill to the green, which is ringed by three deep bunkers. Shot Scope data show that only 7 of 100 players reach this green in regulation. Joe won’t be one of them. His third shot avoids the sand—but finds the rough below and to the right of the green. He catches his pitch shot a couple of grooves low and watches in disgust as his ball rockets past the hole and off the other side of the green. One delicate chip shot played indelicately and two putts later, Joe cards his second triple of the day.

Hole Score: 7 | Total Score: +11

Hole 6 | Par Four | 408 yards

The dogleg-leg 6th hole is one Joe knows he has a chance on. He hits a strong, straight, 210-yard drive to the top of the hill from which the fairway bends left and dips down toward the green, leaving him with a shot that, adjusted for elevation, is 170 yards. Two mammoth bunkers that look like they escaped from a Matisse painting wrap around this green. Joe ignores them and hits his 4-hybrid onto the front of the green. The pin is back, though, and try as he might, Joe doesn’t get his first putt to tap-in range. When his five-footer doesn’t drop, it’s another bogey.

Hole Score: 5 | Total Score: +12

Hole 7 | Par Four | 524 yards

The sweeping, dogleg-right 7th plays as a par five for mortals, but a par four in the Ryder Cup. Joe knows that short of divine intervention he has no chance of making a four, but he usually scores best on par fives. Shot Scope data here indicate that players missing the fairway in the brawny bunker guarding the right side of the fairway can, on average, add 1.5 strokes to their scores. Joe can see he wants nothing to do with that bunker, and he pulls his drive left of it, finding a corner of the fairway. He’s got 330 yards left to go and a fairway that keeps bending to the right. That favors his “fade,” and after a low, rolling 3-wood shot, he’s within a smooth 9-iron of the green. If only he could hit a smooth 9-iron. He pulls it into the left greenside bunker, splashes out, and two-putts for a 6 that should’ve been a 5.

Hole Score: 6 | Total Score: +14

Hole 8 | Par Three | 210 yards

Hole 8 plays downhill and requires a tee shot with a carry of 190 to avoid a pond short of the green. Joe sees it—as well as the large tree just right of the green. Shot Scope says this green should be a reachable for Joe, and would have been if fear hadn’t caused him to quicken his swing and miss the green short left. This green has a fair amount of back-to-front slope in it, and Joe’s chip shot doesn’t account for that very well. It’s another two-putt bogey.

Hole Score: 4 | Total Score: +15

Hole 9 | Par Four | 460 yards

The 9th fairway is another one that Shot Scope data indicate will be unreachable for average players. Sure enough, Joe’s drive comes up five yards short of it—but at least it got to the rough and didn’t come to rest in the even heavier rough lining the gully short of it. Walking to his ball, he chuckles at the fairway bunkers in the distance that will give Ryder Cup players pause but were not a factor for him. His second shot will need to fly over that bunker, though, and it does, but he tugs it left into the trees. His pitch-out carries 45 yards, but he needed 65, and his ball nestles down in deep rough. A chili-dip follows. His fifth shot finds the green. Two putts later, Joe walks off with a double. He’s yet to make a par.

Hole Score: 6 | Total Score: +17

Hole 10 | Par Four | 502 yards

Joe won’t know this (mercifully), but Shot Scope data show that the back nine at Bethpage plays .07 shots harder than the front. Players will, on average, hit one fewer fairway and two fewer greens. Bethpage’s par-four 10th is only 15 yards shorter than its par-five 4th. Shot Scope data say that Joe’s drive will miss reaching the fairway by 20 yards, leaving him 278 yards to the green. This fairway is lined with bunkers on both sides, creating an avenue of doubt that Joe successfully negotiates with his 6-iron from the rough, leaving him 142 yards to the hole. Joe nails his 7-iron and harbors dreams of parring this monster until his 16-foot par putt swings wide and he taps in for bogey.

Hole Score: 5 | Total Score: +18

Hole 11 | Par Four | 435 yards

Brimming with confidence, Joe gives his tee shot at the 11th hole a mighty lash, but he’s way out ahead of it and it slices right-of-right toward a bunker complex surrounded by tall, wispy, fescue grass. His ball comes to rest in that tall grass between two bunkers, and he wishes it were in the sand instead. He remembers that tall fescue tends to grab the hosel and shoot the ball left, so he aims his 8-iron right. And the ball still shoots left, traveling no more than 90 yards and nestling down in the primary rough. Now he’s got 160 yards to a green that Shot Scope numbers show is the hardest at which to get up and down if you miss the green. Joe hits what he thinks is a great 7-iron shot, but it only goes 80 yards. His wedge shot from there refuses to stop and dribbles off the back of the green. The back-to-front sloping green isn’t his friend in this situation; there’s no way he can stop his pitch shot near the hole. When his 20-foot putt for double-bogey misses, he taps in for another triple.

Hole score: 7 | Total Score: +21

Hole 12 | Par Four | 515 yards

For the Ryder Cup players, the tee shot on this hole will involve a choice between carrying the the huge, L-shaped bunker at the elbow of the dogleg or cutting off even more and taking it over a stand of trees to leave an even shorter approach shot. Joe will not be reaching that fairway, since according to Shot Scope, it’s 22 yards farther than he can hit his driver. It’s his second shot that will need to carry that bunker, and with a solid 6-iron shot, it does. He’s left with 162 yards to the hole. He tries to step on another 6-iron but comes up short. His chip shot for par rolls 15 feet past the hole. The downhill slider for bogey lips out. It’s another double.

Hole Score: 6 | Total Score: +23

Hole 13 | Par Five | 608 yards

The fairway at the long 13th is another hole that Shot Scope data say is too far away for Joe to hit—by three yards. But he unintentionally executes a power-pull and finds the edge of the fairway. From there, the hole sets up well for him. But a toed 3-wood disappears into the rough, and he can’t find it. Stroke plus distance. His next shot, a fading 3-wood aimed at the left-side fairway cross bunker, bends gently right, finishing just right of that bunker. He’s got just 155 yards to the hole now, with just one high-lipped bunker short of the green to carry. He hits his 7-iron solid, but it checks up on the green, leaving him a 40-footer to the back-right hole location. Joe misjudges his lag putt, leaving it eight feet short. Two putts later, he’s done.

Hole Score: 8 | Total Score: +26

Hole 14 | Par Three | 161 yards

The par-three 14th is an intimidating hole for one of its relatively short length. The green is fronted on the right by a deep bunker set into the hillside on which the large, oblong green is perched. It screams, “Don’t hit it here!” By this point, Joe is past the point of caring much, and he executes a smooth swing with a 5-iron that starts out straight, floats right, carries the bunker, and rolls to a stop 35 feet right of the center-green hole location. He bears down on his first putt and it stops a foot from the hole. A par is born!

Hole Score: 3 | Total Score: +26

Hole 15 | Par Four | 457 yards

Shot scope numbers show that Joe should be able to reach the bunkerless fairway here at the No. 1 handicap hole. And with good tempo and a big shoulder turn, he does. On any normal two-shotter, his full-swing work would be half done. But this isn’t any normal two-shotter. The 15th played as the toughest hole in both U.S. Opens at Bethpage, largely because it calls for an approach shot that plays 50 feet uphill over a bunker to a fast, tilting green. Joe has no chance of reaching this two-tiered green in two from 250 yards. His 3-wood second shot skitters into the right-hand rough, leaving him an 85-yard wedge shot (plus 15 for the elevation) to the back hole location. Joe doesn’t give it enough juice from the rough and finds the greenfront bunker. The walk up the steep hill this late in the round leaves Joe gasping for air. His legs feel like lead weights. He muscles it out of the bunker but has 55 feet to the hole. A wholly expected three-putt ensues.

Hole Score: 7 | Total Score: +29  

Hole 16 | Par Four | 490 yards

Joe’s tired. Disillusioned. Depressed. He’d hoped to play better. The 16th is a downhill par four that, like most of the holes he’s played, is unreachable for him in regulation. But Joe knows there’s still an outside chance for him to break 100. His optimism lasts for one swing. He pulls his tee shot into the trees just left of the forward tees, hits a tree trying to punch out the first time, bashes his third shot onto the foot of the fairway, takes three more swipes from grass and sand to get on the green, then three-putts. He stopped counting after his fourth shot, but it adds up to 9.

Hole Score: 9 | Total Score: +34

Hole 17 | Par Three | 207 yards

From the tee of the gently uphill 17th, all Joe can see is sand. Sand in front of the green. Sand to the right of the green. More sand to its left—and behind it, too. The green itself is just a thin ribbon in between that appears to be four yards deep. It matters not, since Joe can’t hit a driver far enough to reach this green. His tee shot warbles to the right into tall fescue, but there’s good news: from here he has an opening to the green between two bunkers. Sadly for him, the hole is cut on the far side of the 35-yard-wide green. His pitch shot gets within 20 feet of it. But neither of his first two putts do. Double-bogey.

Hole Score: 5 | Total Score: +35

Hole 18 | Par Four | 411 yards

After the uphill trek to the final tee, Joe is gassed. The sight from that tee makes him laugh out loud. More sand, and lots of it. Rees Jones adding two broad bunker complexes left and right of this fairway when he renovated the course, and the distant green, perched on a hilltop, boasts its own mammoth pits of agony. Joe can reach the fairway, and his tired “I don’t care anymore” swing actually produces his best drive of the day, leaving him 190, uphill, to the small green. Joe lays up, wedges on, and casually rolls in a 30-footer that he didn’t even bother reading for an unlikely par, which earns him a round of applause from clubhouse onlookers. This is how the golf gods mess with your head, he thinks. He failed to break 100, but as he walks off the green, he’s looking forward to his next round. Anywhere but Bethpage Black. He thinks: I bet I could sell that par for good money to somebody come Ryder Cup time.

Hole Score: 4 | Total Score: 105 (+35)