I can assure you, only eight players have a chance of winning the 2015 Masters—and this group does not include anyone named Rory, Tiger, Phil, Henrik, Jason, or Adam. How do I know this? I’ve done the research, looked at the facts, mined the stats, and uncovered the irrefutable. You see, at the Masters, some things simply never happen. Consider:
1. Never has the Masters been won by an amateur. This reduces the current field of 94 by seven, leaving 87 play-for-payers.
2. Never has the Masters been won by a player older than 46 years, two months, and 23 days (Jack Nicklaus, 1986). This cleans out 10 former champions along with pre-codgers Darren Clarke, Miguel-Angel Jimenez, and Steve Stricker. (We’re now down to 74.)
3. Never has the Masters been won by anyone born outside the following nations: U.S., Canada, England, Germany, Spain, Argentina, South Africa, Australia, and Fiji (note: Scotsman Sandy Lyle and Welshman Ian Woosnam both were born in England). So say good-bye to 18 foreign-borns, led by Rory McIlroy. (56)
4. Never has the Masters been won by a player born in any of numerous states—that’s a birth defect for Ben Crane (Oregon), Morgan HoŸ man (New Jersey), J.B. Holmes (Kentucky), Dustin Johnson (South Carolina), Robert Streb and Jimmy Walker (Oklahoma), and Gary Woodland (Kansas). (49)
5. Never has the Masters been won by anyone born after August, 31, 1984 (Charl Schwartzel). Sorry, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth, and six others, it’s not your time yet. (39)
6. Never has the Masters been won by a player whose last name begins with the letter R or T. Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Brendon Todd, and Cameron Tringale, thanks for playing, we have some lovely parting gifts. (35)
7. Never has the Masters been won by a player whose first name begins with the letter E or K. That spells strikeouts for Keegan Bradley, Erik Compton, Ernie Els, and Kevin Na, Stadler, and Streelman. (29)
8. Never has the Masters been won by a player after that player had won the FedEx Cup. Four notable casualties here: Jim Furyk, Bill Haas, Brandt Snedeker, and Tiger Woods. (25)
9. Never has the Masters been won for the first time by a player who has made more than 15 appearances (Mark O’Meara, 20151998): Alas, Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood, you’re past your sell-buy dates. (23)
10. Never has the Masters been won for the first time by someone older than 41 years, two months, and 30 days (Mark O’Meara, 1998). John Senden, just kick back and enjoy the week. (22)
11. Never has the Masters been won by an international player making his first appearance. Danny Willett, chill out with Senden. (21)
12. Never has the Masters been won a fourth time more than nine years after the player won his first green jacket. Phil (2004), it’s three and done for you. (20)
13. Never has the Masters been won more than once by an Argentinian, an Australian, or a Canadian. Angel, Adam, and Mike, look at it this way, at least you get to come back every year. (17)
14. Never has the Masters been won by an Australian who had also won another major championship. Geoff Ogilvy, you shot yourself out of contention at Winged Foot. (16)
15. Never has the Masters been won by a player from Great Britain who has made more than seven previous appearances. Ta ta, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter. (14)
16. Never has the Masters been won by a player from South Africa who has made more than six previous appearances. Sorry, Tim Clark and Louis Oosthuizen, but Messrs. Player, Immelman, and Schwartzel set a high standard. (12)
17. Never has the Masters been won by a German player who has made more than three previous appearances. Bernhard Langer may be a slow player, but he wasted no time getting his green jacket—bad news for Martin Kaymer. (11)
18. Never has the Masters been won by an international player who missed the cut at Augusta the year before. Trevor Immelman, Marc Leishman, and Charl Schwartzel, you blew your chances 12 months ago. (8)
And so we are left with just eight players, eight guys whose ages, names, birthplaces, and prior performances have managed not to eliminate them from contention. They are: Jason Dufner, Charley Hoffman, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Hunter Mahan, Ryan Moore, Ryan Palmer, and Bubba Watson. So who will win? Several of them have strong credentials, but the stats don’t lie and only one name emerges. According to David Barrett, the average age of the past Masters Champions has been 32, the average height 5′ 11½”, and the average weight 178. The average number of Masters starts is eight, and the median number of top-10 finishes is two.
Seven of our eight survivors bear little resemblance to that profile but one of them hits it on the nose. He is 32 years old, stands 5′ 11″, weighs 175, and will be making his ninth appearance at Augusta. Twice he has finished among the top 10.
So it’s inevitable. The winner of the 2015 Masters will be Hunter Mahan.
Will I stake everything on that? Never.